FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
11-8 | Road
77
SIENA
SAINTSSIE
12-7 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
SAINTS
100%
STAGS
--
SAINTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
FAIR By 1-7 points
4.0%
FAIR By 8-14 points
12.2%
SIE By 1-7 points
0.6%
SIE By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairfield
84
FAIRFIELD
Siena
60
SIENA
Simulated Score
Fairfield
72
FAIRFIELD
Siena
68
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Stags (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
FAIR @ SIE
61 - 76
Feb 27, 2026
SIE @ FAIR
58 - 72
Jan 19, 2026
FAIR @ SIE
77 - 85
Mar 6, 2025
FAIR @ SIE
64 - 68
Feb 25, 2024
SIE @ FAIR
64 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.0% more
Fairfield: 3.9
vs
Siena: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
Fairfield: 71.4%
vs
Siena: 64.5%
Assists (L5)
+39.5% more
Siena: 17.0
vs
Fairfield: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Siena: 36.5%
vs
Fairfield: 33.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score
84.0
77
SIE Score
60.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 33.2
50.0 / 31.0
Assists
17.0 / 12.2
20.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.9
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 44.5
67.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
64.5 / 71.4
84.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 37.1
25.0 / 20.0
Steals
5.1 / 5.5
3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 8.7
13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
FAIR
SIE
FAIR
ML
66%
23-12
55%
18-15
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
ATS
66%
23-12
48%
16-17
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
TTL
54%
19-16
48%
16-17
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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