MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
11-8 | Road
68
MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
12-5 | Home
55
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
RED FOXES
0%
WARRIORS
--
RED FOXES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Marist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
MRMK By 1-7 points
24.3%
MRMK By 8-14 points
13.7%
MRST By 1-7 points
26.2%
MRST By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Merrimack
79
MERRIMACK
Marist
80
MARIST
Simulated Score
Merrimack
65
MERRIMACK
Marist
70
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Foxes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Foxes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o133.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u133.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
MRST @ MRMK
57 - 58
Feb 12, 2026
MRST @ MRMK
56 - 81
Jan 19, 2026
MRMK @ MRST
68 - 55
Mar 6, 2025
MRMK @ MRST
75 - 53
Feb 16, 2025
MRST @ MRMK
61 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+31.8% more
Marist: 37.0
vs
Merrimack: 28.0
Assists (L5)
+17.5% more
Marist: 16.0
vs
Merrimack: 13.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.5%
Marist: 80.2%
vs
Merrimack: 75.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Marist: 48.3%
vs
Merrimack: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score
79.0
68
MRST Score
80.0
55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 36.4
13.0 / 24.0
Assists
16.0 / 13.7
11.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.9 / 4.8
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 45.5
33.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
80.2 / 75.7
86.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 28.0
32.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.9
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.4
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
MRST
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
MRST
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
MRMK
MRST
MRMK
ML
55%
17-14
47%
16-18
61%
19-12
65%
22-12
ATS
74%
23-8
53%
18-16
61%
19-12
65%
22-12
TTL
52%
16-15
62%
21-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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