COLUMBIA
LIONSCOLU
12-5 | Road
74
YALE
BULLDOGSYALE
13-3 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
LIONS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
COLUMBIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Columbia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around COLU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLU)
COLU By 1-7 points
6.8%
COLU By 8-14 points
16.9%
YALE By 1-7 points
1.4%
YALE By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Columbia
89
COLUMBIA
Yale
68
YALE
Simulated Score
Columbia
68
COLUMBIA
Yale
75
YALE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
YALE @ COLU
60 - 54
Jan 19, 2026
COLU @ YALE
74 - 91
Feb 22, 2025
COLU @ YALE
64 - 90
Jan 18, 2025
YALE @ COLU
92 - 88
Feb 24, 2024
YALE @ COLU
84 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+39.2% more
Columbia: 13.5
vs
Yale: 8.2
Steals (L5)
+13.2% more
Columbia: 4.7
vs
Yale: 4.1
Blocks (L5)
+12.6% more
Columbia: 2.8
vs
Yale: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.8%
Columbia: 71.8%
vs
Yale: 66.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COLU Score
89.0
74
YALE Score
68.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 30.7
50.0 / 18.0
Assists
15.7 / 15.2
20.0 / 7.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.8
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 47.0
51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
66.9 / 71.8
89.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 39.2
31.0 / 26.0
Steals
4.1 / 4.7
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
8.2 / 13.5
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLU
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
YALE
Advantage
24-7-0
(77.4%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLU
Advantage
13-13-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: 0.0
YALE
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
COLU
14-12-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2%
Total +/-: -1.1
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YALE
COLU
YALE
COLU
ML
48%
15-16
44%
12-15
58%
18-13
56%
15-12
ATS
65%
20-11
59%
16-11
58%
18-13
56%
15-12
TTL
61%
19-12
74%
20-7
100%
31-0
100%
27-0
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