Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Grizzlies @ Lumberjacks MONT @ NAU

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

9-9  |  Road

98
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 8:00 PM ET
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

6-13  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
LUMBERJACKS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
LUMBERJACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-51.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +51.0 points (Montana)
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 LumberjacksNAU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

100.0%

Lumberjacks Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONT -51.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

MONT By 1-7 points

0.0%

MONT By 8-14 points

0.0%

NAU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NAU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
90
MONTANA
39
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Simulated Score
75
MONTANA
68
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 MONT @ NAU 98 - 72
Jan 1, 2026 NAU @ MONT 64 - 78
Mar 9, 2025 NAU @ MONT 65 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 MONT @ NAU 83 - 80
Jan 9, 2025 NAU @ MONT 76 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.7%
Montana: 86.2% vs Northern Arizona: 70.5%
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Montana: 13.6 vs Northern Arizona: 11.9
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Montana: 46.2% vs Northern Arizona: 44.5%
Steals (L5) +19.0% more
Northern Arizona: 6.0 vs Montana: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 90.0 98
NAU Score 39.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 31.2 34.0 / 59.0
Assists 13.7 / 13.6 15.0 / 20.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.6 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 46.2 49.0 / 68.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 86.2 63.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 30.0 / 32.1 18.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.0 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 13.6 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT Advantage
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAU
MONT
NAU
MONT
ML
62% 20-12
39% 13-20
81% 26-6
73% 24-9
ATS
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
81% 26-6
73% 24-9
TTL
66% 21-11
59% 19-13-1
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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