Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Bears MTST @ UNCO

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

10-8  |  Road

73
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Bank of Colorado Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

11-8  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BOBCATS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Montana State)
BobcatsMTST (-3.5) 0 BearsUNCO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

88.5%

Bears Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTST -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

MTST By 1-7 points

20.1%

MTST By 8-14 points

27.2%

UNCO By 1-7 points

8.0%

UNCO By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MONTANA STATE
49
NORTHERN COLORADO
Simulated Score
70
MONTANA STATE
75
NORTHERN COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bobcats (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 19, 2026 MTST @ UNCO 73 - 68
Jan 1, 2026 UNCO @ MTST 75 - 89
Mar 11, 2025 MTST @ UNCO 45 - 72
Feb 8, 2025 MTST @ UNCO 66 - 73
Jan 9, 2025 UNCO @ MTST 83 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.8% more
Montana State: 2.7 vs Northern Colorado: 2.0
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Montana State: 6.8 vs Northern Colorado: 6.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.9%
Montana State: 43.0% vs Northern Colorado: 31.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.5%
Montana State: 78.7% vs Northern Colorado: 77.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 61.0 73
UNCO Score 49.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 43.0 33.0 / 42.0
Assists 17.5 / 11.1 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 47.2 43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 78.7 33.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 34.3 47.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.8 2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.1 12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
UNCO
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCO
MTST
UNCO
MTST
ML
50% 16-16
52% 16-15
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
ATS
53% 17-15
52% 16-15
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
TTL
50% 16-16
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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