Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Purple Eagles MSM @ NIA

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

7-12  |  Road

68
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 2:00 PM ET
Gallagher Center
View Odds Details →

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

5-12  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
PURPLE EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 Purple EaglesNIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

72.6%

Purple Eagles Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSM -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)

MSM By 1-7 points

26.8%

MSM By 8-14 points

24.3%

NIA By 1-7 points

16.9%

NIA By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
67
NIAGARA
Simulated Score
70
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
75
NIAGARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Purple Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o131.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 NIA @ MSM 63 - 76
Jan 19, 2026 MSM @ NIA 68 - 58
Feb 14, 2025 MSM @ NIA 84 - 83
Jan 5, 2025 NIA @ MSM 62 - 68
Mar 3, 2024 MSM @ NIA 91 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.5% more
Mount St. Mary's: 6.3 vs Niagara: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +36.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 15.0 vs Niagara: 9.6
Rebounding (L5) +25.4% more
Mount St. Mary's: 37.9 vs Niagara: 28.3
Assists (L5) +24.6% more
Niagara: 14.1 vs Mount St. Mary's: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 73.0 68
NIA Score 67.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 31.4 35.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.1 / 11.3 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.9 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 43.1 34.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 81.1 / 71.5 67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 28.3 / 37.9 39.0 / 36.0
Steals 3.8 / 6.3 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 15.0 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIA
MSM
NIA
MSM
ML
55% 16-13
53% 17-15
72% 21-8
61% 19-12
ATS
69% 20-9
62% 20-12
72% 21-8
61% 19-12
TTL
55% 16-13
81% 26-6
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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