NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
6-12 | Road
80
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
HUSKIESHCU
6-12 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
0%
HUSKIES
100%
DEMONS
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Northwestern State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NWST -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)
NWST By 1-7 points
27.2%
NWST By 8-14 points
20.1%
HCU By 1-7 points
21.6%
HCU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
69
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Houston Christian
66
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
70
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Houston Christian
75
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Demons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Demons (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
HCU @ NWST
53 - 71
Jan 19, 2026
NWST @ HCU
80 - 82
Mar 1, 2025
HCU @ NWST
56 - 61
Dec 7, 2024
NWST @ HCU
64 - 57
Feb 24, 2024
NWST @ HCU
86 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Northwestern State: 76.0%
vs
Houston Christian: 70.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Northwestern State: 48.0%
vs
Houston Christian: 43.5%
Blocks (L5)
+172.9% more
Houston Christian: 3.8
vs
Northwestern State: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+26.3% more
Houston Christian: 14.7
vs
Northwestern State: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
69.0
80
HCU Score
66.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 33.5
60.0 / 37.0
Assists
14.7 / 11.7
19.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.8 / 1.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 48.0
60.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 76.0
73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 28.7
23.0 / 22.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.6
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 13.0
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
HCU
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
HCU
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
HCU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HCU
NWST
HCU
NWST
ML
68%
21-10
68%
21-10
81%
25-6
77%
23-7
ATS
58%
18-13
68%
21-10
81%
26-6
77%
23-7
TTL
68%
21-10
39%
12-19
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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