Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Crimson PENN @ HARV

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

9-7  |  Road

63
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 2:00 PM ET
Lavietes Pavilion
View Odds Details →

HARVARD

CRIMSONHARV

9-8  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
0%
📊
CRIMSON
100%
QUAKERS --
CRIMSON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Pennsylvania)
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 CrimsonHARV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

97.1%

Crimson Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PENN -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)

PENN By 1-7 points

9.3%

PENN By 8-14 points

20.1%

HARV By 1-7 points

2.2%

HARV By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
66
PENNSYLVANIA
47
HARVARD
Simulated Score
68
PENNSYLVANIA
73
HARVARD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Quakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Quakers (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Crimson (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 PENN @ HARV 62 - 60
Feb 28, 2026 HARV @ PENN 61 - 64
Jan 19, 2026 PENN @ HARV 63 - 64
Feb 22, 2025 HARV @ PENN 79 - 78
Jan 20, 2025 PENN @ HARV 82 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.1% more
Pennsylvania: 36.9 vs Harvard: 32.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Pennsylvania: 41.4% vs Harvard: 39.1%
Blocks (L5) +73.8% more
Harvard: 3.9 vs Pennsylvania: 2.3
Steals (L5) +64.4% more
Harvard: 7.2 vs Pennsylvania: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 66.0 63
HARV Score 47.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 41.4 33.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.7 / 12.4 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.3 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 45.1 48.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 84.5 / 69.6 50.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 36.9 32.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.2 / 4.4 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 8.8 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
HARV Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
HARV Advantage
12-13-1 (48.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
HARV
9-17-0
O: 34.6% / U: 65.4% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HARV
PENN
HARV
PENN
ML
45% 13-16
53% 16-14
52% 15-14
76% 22-7
ATS
45% 13-16
63% 19-11
52% 15-14
76% 22-7
TTL
41% 12-17
70% 21-9
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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