Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Revolutionaries @ Patriots GW @ GMU

GEORGE WASHINGTON

REVOLUTIONARIESGW

12-6  |  Road

64
FINAL
Mon, Jan 19 • 5:00 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

17-1  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
REVOLUTIONARIES
0%
📊
PATRIOTS
100%
REVOLUTIONARIES --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (George Washington)
RevolutionariesGW (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Revolutionaries Cover

100.0%

Patriots Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GW -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GW)

GW By 1-7 points

0.1%

GW By 8-14 points

0.5%

GMU By 1-7 points

0.0%

GMU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
84
GEORGE WASHINGTON
44
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
68
GEORGE WASHINGTON
75
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Revolutionaries Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Revolutionaries (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 13, 2026 GMU @ GW 53 - 72
Jan 19, 2026 GW @ GMU 64 - 69
Mar 14, 2025 GW @ GMU 65 - 80
Feb 5, 2025 GMU @ GW 53 - 50
Jan 18, 2025 GW @ GMU 77 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.9% more
George Washington: 7.1 vs George Mason: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +28.0% more
George Washington: 10.2 vs George Mason: 7.3
Blocks (L5) +19.7% more
George Washington: 3.3 vs George Mason: 2.7
Rebounding (L5) +15.2% more
George Washington: 39.3 vs George Mason: 33.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GW Score 84.0 64
GMU Score 44.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 34.8 35.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.1 / 15.7 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 45.6 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 70.4 65.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 33.4 / 39.3 32.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.8 / 7.1 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 7.3 / 10.2 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GW
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GW
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.4
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
GW
GMU
GW
ML
55% 18-15
63% 22-13
73% 24-9
60% 21-14
ATS
55% 18-15
69% 24-11
73% 24-9
60% 21-14
TTL
58% 19-14
60% 21-14
100% 33-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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