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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

21-22  |  Road

117
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

12-30  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Sacramento)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

30.9%

Kings Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

POR By 1-7 points

18.6%

POR By 8-14 points

8.0%

SAC By 1-7 points

27.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
118
PORTLAND
123
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
120
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (-2) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o229.0 Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u229.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SAC @ POR 110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026 POR @ SAC 117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025 POR @ SAC 98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025 SAC @ POR 133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025 SAC @ POR 123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.9% more
Sacramento: 27.4 vs Portland: 23.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Sacramento: 42.9% vs Portland: 33.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Sacramento: 52.2% vs Portland: 47.2%
Steals (L5) +41.6% more
Portland: 9.3 vs Sacramento: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 118.0 117
SAC Score 123.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.9 / 33.9 35.0 / 25.0
Assists 27.4 / 23.4 29.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.8 / 4.5 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.2 / 47.2 49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 75.6 83.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 42.2 / 45.2 40.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.4 / 9.3 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 15.8 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
POR
SAC
POR
ML
55% 55-45
53% 56-49
61% 50-32
55% 49-40
ATS
54% 52-45-3
62% 65-39-1
61% 50-32
55% 49-40
TTL
58% 57-42-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 82-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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