CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
15-27 | Road
110
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
29-13 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
HORNETS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
CHA By 1-7 points
23.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
27.2%
DEN By 1-7 points
10.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
117
CHARLOTTE
Denver
107
DENVER
Simulated Score
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Denver
108
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Hornets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
CHA @ DEN
110 - 87
Dec 7, 2025
DEN @ CHA
115 - 106
Feb 20, 2025
CHA @ DEN
115 - 129
Feb 1, 2025
DEN @ CHA
107 - 104
Jan 1, 2024
CHA @ DEN
93 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+24.1% more
Charlotte: 14.6
vs
Denver: 11.1
Rebounding (L5)
+20.2% more
Charlotte: 48.2
vs
Denver: 38.4
Blocks (L5)
+16.0% more
Charlotte: 4.1
vs
Denver: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+9.9% more
Charlotte: 28.6
vs
Denver: 25.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
117.0
110
DEN Score
107.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 38.8
21.0 / 32.0
Assists
25.8 / 28.6
21.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 48.7
41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 83.3
83.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 48.2
29.0 / 52.0
Steals
6.1 / 4.9
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 14.6
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CHA
DEN
CHA
ML
54%
57-48
61%
60-39
55%
47-39
48%
40-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
60%
59-40
55%
47-39
48%
40-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
58%
57-42
100%
86-0
100%
84-0
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