Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Black Knights AMER @ ARMY

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

10-8  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 1:00 PM ET
Christl Arena
View Odds Details →

ARMY

BLACK KNIGHTSARMY

7-11  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BLACK KNIGHTS
0%
EAGLES --
BLACK KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
ARMY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Army)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 Black KnightsARMY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

11.5%

Black Knights Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARMY -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)

AMER By 1-7 points

8.0%

AMER By 8-14 points

2.2%

ARMY By 1-7 points

20.1%

ARMY By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
64
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
76
ARMY
Simulated Score
67
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
71
ARMY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Black Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Black Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Black Knights (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Black Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 ARMY @ AMER 63 - 75
Jan 18, 2026 AMER @ ARMY 78 - 67
Feb 19, 2025 AMER @ ARMY 69 - 76
Feb 1, 2025 ARMY @ AMER 68 - 71
Feb 28, 2024 AMER @ ARMY 73 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +81.3% more
Army: 1.9 vs American University: 1.1
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Army: 14.9 vs American University: 12.8
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
Army: 36.5 vs American University: 32.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Army: 35.7% vs American University: 28.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 64.0 78
ARMY Score 76.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 28.2 28.0 / 40.0
Assists 14.9 / 12.8 17.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 42.6 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 76.1 89.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 32.7 29.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.1 / 6.1 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 8.9 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
ARMY
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
ARMY
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
ARMY
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
AMER
ARMY
AMER
ML
44% 14-18
62% 20-12
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
ATS
44% 14-18
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
TTL
81% 26-6
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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