ORLANDO
MAGICORL
23-18 | Road
109
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
17-23 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
MAGIC
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
ORL By 1-7 points
10.7%
ORL By 8-14 points
3.3%
MEM By 1-7 points
23.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
108
ORLANDO
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Orlando
107
ORLANDO
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+4)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u231.0
Loss
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u231.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 18, 2026
ORL @ MEM
109 - 126
Jan 15, 2026
MEM @ ORL
111 - 118
Feb 21, 2025
MEM @ ORL
105 - 104
Oct 26, 2024
ORL @ MEM
111 - 124
Mar 30, 2024
MEM @ ORL
88 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+15.0% more
Memphis: 5.5
vs
Orlando: 4.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Memphis: 37.6%
vs
Orlando: 34.9%
Steals (L5)
+31.3% more
Orlando: 8.7
vs
Memphis: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
108.0
109
MEM Score
118.0
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 34.9
37.0 / 30.0
Assists
28.2 / 27.0
31.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.8
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 45.8
53.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
83.9 / 83.9
68.0 / 94.0
Rebounding
46.5 / 46.8
42.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.0 / 8.7
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 15.4
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ORL
MEM
ORL
ML
57%
59-44
61%
65-42
50%
41-41
56%
51-40
ATS
63%
65-38
64%
68-38-1
50%
41-41
56%
51-40
TTL
70%
71-31-1
57%
61-46
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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