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WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

10-8  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 2:00 PM ET
Yuengling Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

11-6  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
SHOCKERS
0%
📊
BULLS
100%
SHOCKERS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ShockersWICH (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Shockers Cover

38.2%

Bulls Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USF +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

WICH By 1-7 points

27.2%

WICH By 8-14 points

20.1%

USF By 1-7 points

21.6%

USF By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
73
WICHITA STATE
70
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
68
WICHITA STATE
72
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Shockers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 WICH @ USF 55 - 70
Feb 11, 2026 USF @ WICH 66 - 58
Jan 18, 2026 WICH @ USF 86 - 85
Mar 13, 2025 USF @ WICH 68 - 73
Feb 9, 2025 WICH @ USF 75 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
Wichita State: 12.1 vs South Florida: 10.9
Assists (L5) +78.4% more
South Florida: 18.0 vs Wichita State: 10.1
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
South Florida: 8.7 vs Wichita State: 6.1
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
South Florida: 42.8 vs Wichita State: 39.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WICH Score 73.0 86
USF Score 70.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 34.6 43.0 / 52.0
Assists 18.0 / 10.1 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.9 7.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 43.0 39.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 67.8 77.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 39.2 42.0 / 49.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.1 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 12.1 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WICH
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
WICH
USF
WICH
ML
61% 20-13
61% 22-14
52% 16-15
68% 23-11
ATS
61% 20-13
64% 23-13
52% 16-15
68% 23-11
TTL
52% 17-16
69% 25-11
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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