Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Terrapins PSU @ MD

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

9-8  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 12:00 PM ET
XFINITY Center
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND

TERRAPINSMD

7-10  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
TERRAPINS
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
TERRAPINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Maryland)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 TerrapinsMD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

1.4%

Terrapins Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MD -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)

PSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

MD By 1-7 points

5.8%

MD By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
54
PENN STATE
76
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
68
PENN STATE
72
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Terrapins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Terrapins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Terrapins (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Terrapins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 PSU @ MD 73 - 96
Mar 1, 2025 MD @ PSU 68 - 64
Mar 10, 2024 MD @ PSU 69 - 85
Dec 6, 2023 PSU @ MD 75 - 81
Mar 5, 2023 MD @ PSU 64 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +179.0% more
Maryland: 2.9 vs Penn State: 1.1
Rebounding (L5) +21.0% more
Maryland: 34.5 vs Penn State: 28.5
Turnovers (L5) +14.1% more
Maryland: 12.0 vs Penn State: 10.5
Assists (L5) +34.1% more
Penn State: 12.9 vs Maryland: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 54.0 73
MD Score 76.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.4 / 28.4 53.0 / 38.0
Assists 8.5 / 12.9 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.1 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 38.3 / 44.9 54.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 84.1 71.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 28.5 39.0 / 21.0
Steals 4.5 / 5.7 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 10.5 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
MD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
MD Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
PSU
MD
PSU
ML
70% 23-10
72% 23-9
67% 22-11
56% 18-14
ATS
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
67% 22-11
56% 18-14
TTL
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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