Home / NHL Projections NHL / Lightning @ Stars TB @ DAL

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

29-13-4  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jan 18 • 2:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

27-12-9  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.00 0.950 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 3.09 0.880 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 3.09
0.950 Ldr Save % 0.880
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
STARS
100%
LIGHTNING --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

DAL By 1 goal

12.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
DALLAS
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 TB @ DAL 4 - 1
Oct 30, 2025 DAL @ TB 1 - 2
Mar 20, 2025 TB @ DAL 3 - 2
Nov 23, 2024 DAL @ TB 4 - 2
Dec 4, 2023 DAL @ TB 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +18.1%
Tampa Bay: 38.3% vs Dallas: 20.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +17.7% more
Tampa Bay: 30.2 vs Dallas: 24.9
Faceoff % (L5) +1.7%
Tampa Bay: 46.9% vs Dallas: 45.2%
Blocked Shots (L5) +68.4% more
Dallas: 16.8 vs Tampa Bay: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 4
DAL Score 2.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.8 / 10.0 14.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 45.2 / 46.9 60.4 / 39.6
Hits 18.0 / 14.2 16.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 2015.0 / 3825.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.9 / 30.2 20.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 4.6 / 3.8 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
80%MONEY20%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
TB
DAL
TB
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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