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AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

11-5  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Allen Arena
View Odds Details →

LIPSCOMB

BISONSLIP

11-7  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
📊
BISONS
0%
GOVERNORS --
BISONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
LIPSCOMB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Lipscomb)
GovernorsAPSU (-3.5) 0 BisonsLIP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Governors Cover

5.5%

Bisons Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIP -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIP)

APSU By 1-7 points

4.0%

APSU By 8-14 points

0.8%

LIP By 1-7 points

13.7%

LIP By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
AUSTIN PEAY
95
LIPSCOMB
Simulated Score
72
AUSTIN PEAY
78
LIPSCOMB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bisons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bisons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bisons (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bisons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 LIP @ APSU 76 - 87
Jan 17, 2026 APSU @ LIP 78 - 82
Feb 24, 2025 LIP @ APSU 95 - 78
Jan 18, 2025 APSU @ LIP 60 - 88
Feb 24, 2024 LIP @ APSU 90 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +83.3% more
Lipscomb: 3.1 vs Austin Peay: 1.7
Assists (L5) +37.3% more
Lipscomb: 20.2 vs Austin Peay: 14.7
Turnovers (L5) +35.2% more
Lipscomb: 11.7 vs Austin Peay: 8.7
Rebounding (L5) +9.3% more
Lipscomb: 37.7 vs Austin Peay: 34.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 79.0 78
LIP Score 95.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 35.1 28.0 / 38.0
Assists 20.2 / 14.7 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 1.7 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 44.8 49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 71.3 100.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 34.5 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 4.6 / 12.1 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 8.7 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
LIP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
LIP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
LIP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIP
APSU
LIP
APSU
ML
71% 22-9
53% 16-14
66% 19-10
59% 16-11
ATS
71% 22-9
57% 17-13
66% 19-10
59% 16-11
TTL
58% 18-13
57% 17-13
100% 29-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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