Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Privateers SFA @ UNO

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

14-3  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 6:00 PM ET
Lakefront Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PRIVATEERSUNO

6-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
📊
PRIVATEERS
100%
LUMBERJACKS --
PRIVATEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
LumberjacksSFA (-3.5) 0 PrivateersUNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

97.7%

Privateers Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SFA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)

SFA By 1-7 points

8.0%

SFA By 8-14 points

18.6%

UNO By 1-7 points

1.7%

UNO By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
64
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
65
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
78
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lumberjacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Privateers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lumberjacks (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Privateers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 UNO @ SFA 77 - 73
Jan 17, 2026 SFA @ UNO 84 - 79
Feb 3, 2025 SFA @ UNO 88 - 85
Dec 29, 2023 UNO @ SFA 51 - 80
Feb 15, 2021 SFA @ UNO 89 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +55.4% more
Stephen F. Austin: 7.7 vs New Orleans: 3.4
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 12.9 vs New Orleans: 10.0
Blocks (L5) +49.3% more
New Orleans: 4.5 vs Stephen F. Austin: 3.0
Turnovers (L5) +38.3% more
New Orleans: 14.1 vs Stephen F. Austin: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 84.0 84
UNO Score 64.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 26.4 41.0 / 30.0
Assists 10.0 / 12.9 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.0 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 41.2 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 66.3 55.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 41.9 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 3.4 / 7.7 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 10.2 12.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
UNO
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
UNO
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
UNO
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNO
SFA
UNO
SFA
ML
52% 16-15
59% 17-12
57% 17-13
79% 23-6
ATS
52% 16-15
59% 17-12
57% 17-13
79% 23-6
TTL
58% 18-13
62% 18-11
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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