Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cowboys @ Vaqueros MCN @ RGV

MCNEESE

COWBOYSMCN

14-3  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 5:30 PM ET
UTRGV Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

VAQUEROSRGV

6-11  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
📊
VAQUEROS
100%
COWBOYS --
VAQUEROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CowboysMCN (-3.5) 0 VaquerosRGV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

30.9%

Vaqueros Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RGV +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RGV)

MCN By 1-7 points

27.2%

MCN By 8-14 points

23.0%

RGV By 1-7 points

18.6%

RGV By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
56
MCNEESE
51
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
70
MCNEESE
75
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vaqueros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vaqueros (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Vaqueros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 RGV @ MCN 80 - 84
Feb 23, 2026 RGV @ MCN 68 - 75
Jan 17, 2026 MCN @ RGV 76 - 79
Feb 24, 2025 RGV @ MCN 65 - 100
Jan 25, 2025 MCN @ RGV 93 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.3% more
McNeese: 4.6 vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 2.9
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
McNeese: 35.5 vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 32.3
Steals (L5) +8.2% more
McNeese: 8.8 vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 8.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
McNeese: 37.2% vs UT Rio Grande Valley: 31.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MCN Score 56.0 76
RGV Score 51.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 37.2 48.0 / 19.0
Assists 16.6 / 14.6 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 4.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 47.5 54.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 76.2 78.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 35.5 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.1 / 8.8 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 9.7 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
RGV
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
RGV Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
MCN
RGV
MCN
ML
53% 16-14
67% 22-11
54% 15-13
88% 28-4
ATS
53% 16-14
76% 25-8
54% 15-13
88% 28-4
TTL
60% 18-12
42% 14-19
100% 28-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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