NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
6-11 | Road
74
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
8-9 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
DEMONS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-43.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +43.0 points (Incarnate Word)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UIW -43.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
NWST By 1-7 points
0.0%
NWST By 8-14 points
0.0%
UIW By 1-7 points
0.0%
UIW By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
58
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Incarnate Word
101
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
68
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Incarnate Word
72
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 23, 2026
UIW @ NWST
49 - 54
Jan 17, 2026
NWST @ UIW
74 - 76
Mar 3, 2025
UIW @ NWST
57 - 73
Dec 5, 2024
NWST @ UIW
72 - 70
Feb 17, 2024
NWST @ UIW
81 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+124.4% more
Incarnate Word: 3.6
vs
Northwestern State: 1.6
Rebounding (L5)
+11.5% more
Incarnate Word: 35.1
vs
Northwestern State: 31.5
Steals (L5)
+18.0% more
Northwestern State: 6.4
vs
Incarnate Word: 5.2
Turnovers (L5)
+16.9% more
Northwestern State: 12.9
vs
Incarnate Word: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
58.0
74
UIW Score
101.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
22.8 / 34.8
42.0 / 31.0
Assists
9.6 / 11.5
10.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.6 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
37.9 / 45.4
47.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
62.3 / 75.9
88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 31.5
28.0 / 23.0
Steals
5.2 / 6.4
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 12.9
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
UIW
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
NWST
UIW
NWST
ML
47%
14-16
68%
21-10
76%
22-7
77%
23-7
ATS
53%
16-14
68%
21-10
77%
23-7
77%
23-7
TTL
60%
18-12
39%
12-19
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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