Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vandals @ Wildcats IDHO @ WEB

IDAHO

VANDALSIDHO

10-7  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Events Center
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WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

10-8  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
VANDALS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
WEBER STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Weber State)
VandalsIDHO (-3.5) 0 WildcatsWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vandals Cover

0.3%

Wildcats Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WEB -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WEB)

IDHO By 1-7 points

0.3%

IDHO By 8-14 points

0.0%

WEB By 1-7 points

2.2%

WEB By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
IDAHO
92
WEBER STATE
Simulated Score
66
IDAHO
75
WEBER STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 WEB @ IDHO 83 - 72
Jan 17, 2026 IDHO @ WEB 75 - 67
Mar 1, 2025 WEB @ IDHO 79 - 81
Jan 30, 2025 IDHO @ WEB 82 - 74
Feb 15, 2024 WEB @ IDHO 70 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +37.3% more
Weber State: 12.6 vs Idaho: 9.2
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Weber State: 10.5 vs Idaho: 8.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.3%
Weber State: 39.9% vs Idaho: 28.6%
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Weber State: 36.8 vs Idaho: 33.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score 65.0 75
WEB Score 92.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.9 / 28.6 24.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.6 / 9.2 9.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.6 / 1.9 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 44.0 30.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 71.9 72.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 36.8 / 33.7 44.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.3 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 8.8 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO Advantage
21-15-0 (58.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
WEB
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WEB
IDHO
WEB
IDHO
ML
73% 22-8
56% 20-16
73% 22-8
64% 21-12
ATS
63% 19-11
58% 21-15
74% 23-8
64% 21-12
TTL
83% 25-5
69% 25-11
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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