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MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

9-8  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Worthington Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

9-8  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
BOBCATS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Montana)
GrizzliesMONT (-3.5) 0 BobcatsMTST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

93.3%

Bobcats Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONT -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

MONT By 1-7 points

15.3%

MONT By 8-14 points

25.3%

MTST By 1-7 points

4.8%

MTST By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
94
MONTANA
79
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
70
MONTANA
75
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MTST @ MONT 82 - 71
Jan 17, 2026 MONT @ MTST 67 - 76
Feb 22, 2025 MONT @ MTST 89 - 85
Jan 25, 2025 MTST @ MONT 70 - 77
Mar 13, 2024 MTST @ MONT 85 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
Montana: 14.9 vs Montana State: 11.6
Steals (L5) +13.2% more
Montana: 6.0 vs Montana State: 5.2
Turnovers (L5) +9.6% more
Montana: 12.9 vs Montana State: 11.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Montana: 82.7% vs Montana State: 79.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONT Score 94.0 67
MTST Score 79.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.0 / 27.8 45.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.9 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.9 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 47.8 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 82.7 77.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 33.2 36.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.2 / 6.0 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 12.9 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
MONT
MTST
MONT
ML
52% 16-15
39% 13-20
67% 20-10
73% 24-9
ATS
52% 16-15
55% 18-15
67% 20-10
73% 24-9
TTL
65% 20-11
59% 19-13-1
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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