WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
10-30 | Road
115
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
28-13 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
WIZARDS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
WSH By 1-7 points
25.3%
WSH By 8-14 points
26.2%
DEN By 1-7 points
13.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
130
WASHINGTON
Denver
122
DENVER
Simulated Score
Washington
108
WASHINGTON
Denver
120
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wizards
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o227.5
Win
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim
u227.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
DEN @ WSH
107 - 97
Jan 17, 2026
WSH @ DEN
115 - 121
Mar 15, 2025
WSH @ DEN
126 - 123
Dec 7, 2024
DEN @ WSH
113 - 122
Feb 22, 2024
WSH @ DEN
110 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.3% more
Washington: 4.6
vs
Denver: 3.1
Turnovers (L5)
+32.0% more
Washington: 14.9
vs
Denver: 10.2
Steals (L5)
+30.6% more
Washington: 8.2
vs
Denver: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Washington: 81.7%
vs
Denver: 79.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
130.0
115
DEN Score
122.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.4 / 30.1
40.0 / 37.0
Assists
23.2 / 24.0
31.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.1 / 4.6
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 46.1
53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 81.7
74.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 40.2
38.0 / 48.0
Steals
5.7 / 8.2
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 14.9
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
WSH
DEN
WSH
ML
54%
57-48
70%
112-49
55%
47-39
47%
39-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
69%
111-49-1
55%
47-39
47%
39-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
74%
119-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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