FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
24-19-3 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
24-18-6 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.02 | 0.897 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.02
--
Save %
0.897
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
PANTHERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
FLA By 1 goal
6.6%
FLA By 2-3 goals
3.7%
WSH By 1 goal
17.5%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
1
FLORIDA
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Florida
2
FLORIDA
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ WSH
5 - 2
Dec 29, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 6
Mar 22, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Feb 4, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+21.6% more
Washington: 29.3
vs
Florida: 24.1
Blocked Shots (L5)
+16.7% more
Washington: 13.3
vs
Florida: 11.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.2%
Washington: 47.0%
vs
Florida: 43.8%
Takeaways (L5)
+22.8% more
Florida: 5.4
vs
Washington: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
1.0
5
WSH Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 11.4
18.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
47.0 / 43.8
58.9 / 41.1
Hits
18.4 / 21.4
29.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
23.8 / 31.3
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
29.3 / 24.1
24.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 5.4
2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
FLA
WSH
FLA
ML
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
Contextual Game News
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