Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Bobcats USM @ TXST

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

11-8  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:30 PM ET
Strahan Arena at the University Events Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

10-9  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Texas State)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 BobcatsTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

5.5%

Bobcats Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

USM By 1-7 points

4.0%

USM By 8-14 points

0.8%

TXST By 1-7 points

13.7%

TXST By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SOUTHERN MISS
95
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN MISS
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 USM @ TXST 81 - 77
Jan 17, 2026 USM @ TXST 67 - 74
Jan 8, 2026 TXST @ USM 70 - 80
Jan 18, 2025 USM @ TXST 82 - 85
Jan 11, 2025 TXST @ USM 88 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.0% more
Texas State: 9.0 vs Southern Miss: 7.0
Assists (L5) +23.9% more
Texas State: 13.1 vs Southern Miss: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Texas State: 31.5% vs Southern Miss: 24.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Texas State: 47.9% vs Southern Miss: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 79.0 67
TXST Score 95.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 24.5 46.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.1 / 10.6 6.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.8 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 44.9 48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 72.2 80.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 35.5 33.0 / 24.0
Steals 9.0 / 7.0 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 14.5 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
TXST Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
TXST
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
USM
TXST
USM
ML
42% 13-18
53% 18-16
83% 25-5
73% 24-9
ATS
48% 15-16
59% 20-14
84% 26-5
74% 25-9
TTL
65% 20-11
68% 23-11
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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