Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bobcats @ Warriors QUIN @ MRMK

QUINNIPIAC

BOBCATSQUIN

12-6  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 3:00 PM ET
Lawler Arena
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

10-8  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
BOBCATS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Merrimack)
BobcatsQUIN (-3.5) 0 WarriorsMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bobcats Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRMK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

QUIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

QUIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

MRMK By 1-7 points

26.2%

MRMK By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
58
QUINNIPIAC
59
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
69
QUINNIPIAC
73
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.0 Loss
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u141.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 15, 2026 MRMK @ QUIN 56 - 49
Jan 17, 2026 QUIN @ MRMK 71 - 83
Mar 2, 2025 QUIN @ MRMK 63 - 73
Jan 16, 2025 MRMK @ QUIN 76 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.6% more
Merrimack: 8.9 vs Quinnipiac: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5) +6.3%
Merrimack: 76.6% vs Quinnipiac: 70.3%
Assists (L5) +20.6% more
Quinnipiac: 15.1 vs Merrimack: 12.0
Rebounding (L5) +18.9% more
Quinnipiac: 33.3 vs Merrimack: 27.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
QUIN Score 58.0 71
MRMK Score 59.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.5 / 37.2 54.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.0 / 15.1 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.0 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 43.0 50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 70.3 74.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 27.0 / 33.3 30.0 / 28.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.8 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 10.3 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
QUIN
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
QUIN
13-17-1 (43.3%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
QUIN
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -0.9
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
QUIN
MRMK
QUIN
ML
47% 16-18
66% 21-11
65% 22-12
53% 17-15
ATS
53% 18-16
59% 19-13
65% 22-12
53% 17-15
TTL
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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