UNLV
REBELSUNLV
8-8 | Road
76
SAN JOSÉ STATE
SPARTANSSJSU
6-11 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
REBELS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San José State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)
UNLV By 1-7 points
23.0%
UNLV By 8-14 points
12.2%
SJSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
SJSU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UNLV
77
UNLV
San José State
79
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
UNLV
65
UNLV
San José State
78
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
SJSU @ UNLV
75 - 82
Jan 17, 2026
UNLV @ SJSU
76 - 62
Feb 25, 2025
UNLV @ SJSU
77 - 71
Jan 4, 2025
SJSU @ UNLV
73 - 79
Mar 2, 2024
SJSU @ UNLV
50 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
San José State: 74.3%
vs
UNLV: 65.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
San José State: 35.6%
vs
UNLV: 33.3%
Blocks (L5)
+37.2% more
UNLV: 4.6
vs
San José State: 2.9
Rebounding (L5)
+28.8% more
UNLV: 36.6
vs
San José State: 26.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score
77.0
76
SJSU Score
79.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 33.3
55.0 / 48.0
Assists
9.3 / 12.7
5.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.9 / 4.6
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 43.9
41.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
74.3 / 65.6
86.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
26.1 / 36.6
31.0 / 22.0
Steals
6.4 / 8.9
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 13.3
12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
SJSU
9-24-0
(27.3%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
SJSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4%
Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
UNLV
SJSU
UNLV
ML
73%
24-9
50%
17-17
62%
20-12
59%
20-14
ATS
73%
24-9
65%
22-12
62%
20-12
59%
20-14
TTL
61%
20-13
62%
21-13
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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