Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pilots @ Lions PORT @ LMU

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

9-11  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

11-9  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
PILOTS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Portland)
PilotsPORT (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pilots Cover

99.9%

Lions Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PORT -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

PORT By 1-7 points

1.1%

PORT By 8-14 points

4.8%

LMU By 1-7 points

0.1%

LMU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
95
PORTLAND
65
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
70
PORTLAND
75
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pilots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pilots (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 PORT @ LMU 71 - 58
Feb 15, 2025 LMU @ PORT 78 - 89
Jan 30, 2025 PORT @ LMU 63 - 88
Mar 8, 2024 LMU @ PORT 70 - 78
Mar 2, 2024 LMU @ PORT 60 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
Portland: 16.0 vs Loyola Marymount: 11.1
Blocks (L5) +37.8% more
Loyola Marymount: 3.9 vs Portland: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +11.4% more
Loyola Marymount: 12.9 vs Portland: 11.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Loyola Marymount: 31.4% vs Portland: 28.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PORT Score 95.0 71
LMU Score 65.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 28.4 29.0 / 47.0
Assists 11.1 / 16.0 11.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 42.4 32.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 76.4 78.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 33.8 35.0 / 41.0
Steals 4.9 / 4.7 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 11.6 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
LMU Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
PORT
LMU
PORT
ML
53% 17-15
48% 16-17
50% 16-16
82% 27-6
ATS
47% 15-17
67% 22-11
50% 16-16
82% 28-6
TTL
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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