WESTERN ILLINOIS
LEATHERNECKSWIU
4-14 | Road
79
LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
8-10 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
LEATHERNECKS
0%
TROJANS
100%
LEATHERNECKS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Western Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)
WIU By 1-7 points
3.3%
WIU By 8-14 points
10.7%
LR By 1-7 points
0.5%
LR By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Illinois
93
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Little Rock
68
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
Western Illinois
72
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Little Rock
78
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Leathernecks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Leathernecks (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
LR @ WIU
77 - 58
Jan 17, 2026
WIU @ LR
79 - 86
Feb 22, 2025
WIU @ LR
61 - 75
Jan 23, 2025
LR @ WIU
62 - 51
Mar 8, 2024
WIU @ LR
57 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.1% more
Western Illinois: 13.5
vs
Little Rock: 12.0
Assists (L5)
+111.2% more
Little Rock: 16.2
vs
Western Illinois: 7.7
Blocks (L5)
+51.5% more
Little Rock: 3.9
vs
Western Illinois: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+48.3% more
Little Rock: 9.3
vs
Western Illinois: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIU Score
93.0
79
LR Score
68.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 22.0
46.0 / 27.0
Assists
16.2 / 7.7
21.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.6
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 36.6
48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 71.6
100.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 35.2
32.0 / 42.0
Steals
9.3 / 6.3
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 13.5
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
5-26-0
(16.1%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
LR
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
11-17-0
(39.3%)
Margin: -11.9
ATS +/-: -5.3
LR
Advantage
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: -0.1
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
WIU
LR
WIU
ML
52%
16-15
45%
14-17
68%
17-8
61%
19-12
ATS
45%
14-17
52%
16-15
68%
17-8
61%
19-12
TTL
58%
18-13
45%
14-17
100%
25-0
100%
31-0
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