UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
13-5 | Road
83
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-11 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
0%
TRITONS
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUB -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
UCSD By 1-7 points
4.0%
UCSD By 8-14 points
0.8%
CSUB By 1-7 points
13.7%
CSUB By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
56
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Bakersfield
72
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
77
UC SAN DIEGO
Cal State Bakersfield
65
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners (+8.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Tritons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
CSUB @ UCSD
72 - 84
Jan 17, 2026
UCSD @ CSUB
83 - 62
Feb 13, 2025
UCSD @ CSUB
73 - 54
Dec 7, 2024
CSUB @ UCSD
60 - 81
Feb 29, 2024
UCSD @ CSUB
57 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+49.2% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 7.1
vs
UC San Diego: 4.7
Blocks (L5)
+46.3% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 3.7
vs
UC San Diego: 2.6
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 11.4
vs
UC San Diego: 10.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Cal State Bakersfield: 29.7%
vs
UC San Diego: 28.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
56.0
83
CSUB Score
72.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 28.0
32.0 / 41.0
Assists
10.6 / 12.5
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.6
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.3
32.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 75.9
70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
34.0 / 35.4
43.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.1 / 4.7
7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 10.1
15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
UCSD
CSUB
UCSD
ML
55%
17-14
56%
19-15
71%
22-9
65%
22-12
ATS
61%
19-12
50%
17-17
71%
22-9
65%
22-12
TTL
58%
18-13
62%
21-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
