Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Spartans MER @ UNCG

MERCER

BEARSMER

11-7  |  Road

102
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

7-11  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
BEARS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Mercer)
BearsMER (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

97.7%

Spartans Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MER -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)

MER By 1-7 points

8.0%

MER By 8-14 points

18.6%

UNCG By 1-7 points

1.7%

UNCG By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
91
MERCER
71
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
75
MERCER
68
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Bears (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 UNCG @ MER 77 - 95
Jan 17, 2026 MER @ UNCG 102 - 92
Feb 22, 2025 UNCG @ MER 78 - 61
Jan 22, 2025 MER @ UNCG 79 - 78
Feb 24, 2024 UNCG @ MER 72 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.4% more
Mercer: 7.3 vs UNC Greensboro: 5.3
Assists (L5) +21.6% more
Mercer: 14.8 vs UNC Greensboro: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
Mercer: 77.7% vs UNC Greensboro: 63.7%
Blocks (L5) +13.9% more
Mercer: 3.1 vs UNC Greensboro: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 91.0 102
UNCG Score 71.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 35.9 44.0 / 50.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.8 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.1 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 50.3 51.0 / 61.0
Free Throw % 63.7 / 77.7 74.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 40.2 / 39.3 22.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.3 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 12.4 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
MER
UNCG
MER
ML
38% 13-21
55% 17-14
71% 24-10
71% 22-9
ATS
44% 15-19
58% 18-13
71% 24-10
71% 22-9
TTL
76% 26-8
61% 19-12
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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