PENNSYLVANIA
QUAKERSPENN
8-7 | Road
84
DARTMOUTH
BIG GREENDART
8-7 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
100%
BIG GREEN
0%
QUAKERS
--
BIG GREEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DARTMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Dartmouth)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DART -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DART)
PENN By 1-7 points
16.9%
PENN By 8-14 points
6.8%
DART By 1-7 points
26.8%
DART By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pennsylvania
66
PENNSYLVANIA
Dartmouth
72
DARTMOUTH
Simulated Score
Pennsylvania
68
PENNSYLVANIA
Dartmouth
75
DARTMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Big Green
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Big Green
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Big Green (-2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Big Green (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.0
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u163.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
DART @ PENN
71 - 80
Jan 17, 2026
PENN @ DART
84 - 74
Feb 21, 2025
DART @ PENN
75 - 88
Jan 11, 2025
PENN @ DART
70 - 73
Feb 23, 2024
PENN @ DART
82 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+58.3% more
Dartmouth: 4.6
vs
Pennsylvania: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+21.8% more
Dartmouth: 6.1
vs
Pennsylvania: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+14.9% more
Dartmouth: 16.8
vs
Pennsylvania: 14.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
Dartmouth: 51.8%
vs
Pennsylvania: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PENN Score
66.0
84
DART Score
72.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.9 / 40.6
28.0 / 43.0
Assists
16.8 / 14.6
9.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.6 / 2.9
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.8 / 45.7
38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
65.7 / 73.9
73.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
37.6 / 35.4
36.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.0
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.6 / 10.7
11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
DART
Advantage
11-16-0
(40.7%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
DART
Advantage
11-14-0
(44.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
DART
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DART
PENN
DART
PENN
ML
62%
16-10
53%
16-14
50%
13-13
76%
22-7
ATS
65%
17-9
63%
19-11
50%
13-13
76%
22-7
TTL
88%
23-3
70%
21-9
100%
26-0
100%
29-0
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