RIDER
BRONCSRID
2-14 | Road
58
SAINT PETER'S
PEACOCKSSPU
9-6 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
PEACOCKS
0%
BRONCS
--
PEACOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SAINT PETER'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Saint Peter's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SPU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SPU)
RID By 1-7 points
1.4%
RID By 8-14 points
0.2%
SPU By 1-7 points
6.8%
SPU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
62
RIDER
Saint Peter's
83
SAINT PETER'S
Simulated Score
Rider
61
RIDER
Saint Peter's
64
SAINT PETER'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Peacocks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Peacocks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Peacocks (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Peacocks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o134.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
SPU @ RID
78 - 81
Jan 17, 2026
RID @ SPU
58 - 69
Feb 16, 2025
RID @ SPU
65 - 66
Jan 31, 2025
SPU @ RID
64 - 67
Mar 14, 2024
SPU @ RID
50 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+150.5% more
Saint Peter's: 8.1
vs
Rider: 3.2
Blocks (L5)
+40.1% more
Saint Peter's: 5.2
vs
Rider: 3.7
Turnovers (L5)
+18.1% more
Saint Peter's: 12.5
vs
Rider: 10.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Saint Peter's: 76.5%
vs
Rider: 66.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
62.0
58
SPU Score
83.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 27.9
22.0 / 20.0
Assists
12.5 / 11.4
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.7
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 42.5
48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 66.4
50.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 37.1
32.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.1 / 3.2
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 10.6
9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
SPU
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
SPU
Advantage
16-11-1
(59.3%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SPU
RID
SPU
RID
ML
64%
18-10
72%
21-8
71%
20-8
66%
19-10
ATS
71%
20-8
72%
21-8
71%
20-8
66%
19-10
TTL
61%
17-11
62%
18-11
100%
28-0
100%
29-0
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