SIENA
SAINTSSIE
11-7 | Road
74
MANHATTAN
JASPERSMAN
8-11 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
JASPERS
100%
SAINTS
--
JASPERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Siena)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIE -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)
SIE By 1-7 points
6.8%
SIE By 8-14 points
16.9%
MAN By 1-7 points
1.4%
MAN By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Siena
91
SIENA
Manhattan
70
MANHATTAN
Simulated Score
Siena
70
SIENA
Manhattan
75
MANHATTAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Saints
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaspers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Saints (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Jaspers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
SIE @ MAN
74 - 59
Mar 8, 2025
SIE @ MAN
66 - 78
Jan 3, 2025
MAN @ SIE
95 - 103
Mar 1, 2024
MAN @ SIE
70 - 68
Feb 10, 2024
SIE @ MAN
68 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.5% more
Siena: 2.5
vs
Manhattan: 1.4
Assists (L5)
+15.7% more
Siena: 14.4
vs
Manhattan: 12.2
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
Siena: 37.5
vs
Manhattan: 32.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Siena: 43.0%
vs
Manhattan: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIE Score
91.0
74
MAN Score
70.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.0 / 27.8
25.0 / 54.0
Assists
12.2 / 14.4
13.0 / 22.0
Blocks
1.4 / 2.5
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 43.0
37.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
84.7 / 80.3
67.0 / 33.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 37.5
28.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.1
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 7.2
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
MAN
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
MAN
11-19-1
(36.7%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MAN
SIE
MAN
SIE
ML
52%
16-15
66%
23-12
68%
21-10
48%
16-17
ATS
52%
16-15
66%
23-12
69%
22-10
48%
16-17
TTL
77%
24-7
54%
19-16
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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