OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
35-7 | Road
120
MIAMI
HEATMIA
21-20 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
HEAT
100%
THUNDER
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
20.1%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
8.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
128
OKLAHOMA CITY
Miami
116
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thunder (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o234.5
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
OKC @ MIA
120 - 122
Jan 11, 2026
MIA @ OKC
112 - 124
Feb 12, 2025
MIA @ OKC
101 - 115
Dec 20, 2024
OKC @ MIA
104 - 97
Mar 8, 2024
MIA @ OKC
100 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+67.3% more
Oklahoma City: 9.4
vs
Miami: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+14.3% more
Oklahoma City: 9.5
vs
Miami: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.4%
Oklahoma City: 83.1%
vs
Miami: 75.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+31.4% more
Miami: 14.6
vs
Oklahoma City: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
128.0
120
MIA Score
116.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 33.4
40.0 / 45.0
Assists
27.1 / 24.7
30.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.1 / 9.4
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 48.0
37.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
75.8 / 83.1
71.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
42.0 / 42.9
51.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.1 / 9.5
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 11.1
4.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
OKC
MIA
OKC
ML
48%
46-50
70%
80-34
59%
48-34
48%
46-49
ATS
51%
49-47
73%
83-30-1
59%
48-34
48%
46-49
TTL
59%
57-39
67%
76-38
100%
82-0
100%
95-0
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