INDIANA
PACERSIND
10-32 | Road
78
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
29-10 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
PISTONS
0%
PACERS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
IND By 1-7 points
18.6%
IND By 8-14 points
8.0%
DET By 1-7 points
27.2%
DET By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
122
INDIANA
Detroit
127
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Indiana
105
INDIANA
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o226.0
Loss
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u226.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DET @ IND
133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026
IND @ DET
78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025
DET @ IND
122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025
IND @ DET
112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025
DET @ IND
119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+71.0% more
Detroit: 12.2
vs
Indiana: 7.1
Blocks (L5)
+61.2% more
Detroit: 9.0
vs
Indiana: 5.6
Turnovers (L5)
+53.8% more
Detroit: 17.6
vs
Indiana: 11.5
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Detroit: 47.0
vs
Indiana: 43.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
122.0
78
DET Score
127.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 37.2
47.0 / 23.0
Assists
25.9 / 31.7
32.0 / 18.0
Blocks
9.0 / 5.6
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 46.4
49.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 73.2
68.0 / 52.0
Rebounding
47.0 / 43.4
51.0 / 42.0
Steals
12.2 / 7.1
15.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
17.6 / 11.5
19.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
IND
DET
IND
ML
55%
64-53
48%
47-50
49%
47-49
54%
45-38
ATS
53%
60-54-3
59%
57-40
49%
47-49
54%
45-38
TTL
60%
70-46-1
54%
52-45
100%
96-0
100%
83-0
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