Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Hawks BOS @ ATL

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

25-15  |  Road

132
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

20-23  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
CELTICS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

42.1%

Hawks Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

BOS By 1-7 points

26.8%

BOS By 8-14 points

18.6%

ATL By 1-7 points

23.0%

ATL By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
122
BOSTON
120
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
107
BOSTON
118
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o230.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u230.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 BOS @ ATL 102 - 112
Mar 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 102 - 109
Jan 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 117 - 106
Jan 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 132 - 106
Jan 18, 2025 ATL @ BOS 119 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.4% more
Boston: 48.6 vs Atlanta: 40.1
Free Throw % (L5) +13.2%
Boston: 84.2% vs Atlanta: 71.0%
Blocks (L5) +11.8% more
Boston: 4.2 vs Atlanta: 3.7
Steals (L5) +77.6% more
Atlanta: 10.7 vs Boston: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 122.0 132
ATL Score 120.0 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 34.8 33.0 / 42.0
Assists 28.4 / 22.5 29.0 / 27.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.2 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 45.6 37.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 84.2 88.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 48.6 47.0 / 55.0
Steals 10.7 / 6.0 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 11.7 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BOS
ATL
BOS
ML
50% 52-52
57% 61-46
55% 48-40
53% 47-41
ATS
53% 55-48-1
59% 61-43-3
55% 48-40
53% 47-41
TTL
53% 55-48-1
56% 60-47
100% 88-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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