Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Warriors CHA @ GS

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

15-26  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

23-19  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
HORNETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Golden State)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

18.4%

Warriors Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

CHA By 1-7 points

12.2%

CHA By 8-14 points

4.0%

GS By 1-7 points

24.3%

GS By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
122
CHARLOTTE
131
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
115
CHARLOTTE
108
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Hornets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o237.5 Win
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 CHA @ GS 116 - 136
Dec 31, 2025 GS @ CHA 132 - 125
Mar 3, 2025 GS @ CHA 119 - 101
Feb 25, 2025 CHA @ GS 92 - 128
Mar 29, 2024 GS @ CHA 115 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +82.7% more
Golden State: 9.0 vs Charlotte: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +8.3% more
Golden State: 5.0 vs Charlotte: 4.6
Rebounding (L5) +21.1% more
Charlotte: 50.2 vs Golden State: 39.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Charlotte: 40.2% vs Golden State: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 122.0 116
GS Score 131.0 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 40.2 44.0 / 36.0
Assists 30.0 / 29.5 34.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.6 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 50.0 55.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 83.7 / 83.9 85.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 50.2 41.0 / 44.0
Steals 9.0 / 4.9 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 13.5 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
CHA
GS
CHA
ML
55% 95-79
61% 60-39
58% 49-35
48% 40-44
ATS
58% 101-73
60% 59-40
58% 49-35
48% 40-44
TTL
77% 134-40
58% 57-42
100% 84-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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