Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Mavericks UTAH @ DAL

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

14-27  |  Road

120
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 5:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

16-26  |  Home

138
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
JAZZ --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Utah)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

93.3%

Mavericks Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

UTAH By 1-7 points

15.3%

UTAH By 8-14 points

25.3%

DAL By 1-7 points

4.8%

DAL By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
128
UTAH
113
DALLAS
Simulated Score
108
UTAH
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jazz (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u241.5 Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u241.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 UTAH @ DAL 120 - 138
Jan 15, 2026 UTAH @ DAL 122 - 144
Jan 8, 2026 DAL @ UTAH 114 - 116
Dec 15, 2025 DAL @ UTAH 133 - 140
Oct 13, 2025 DAL @ UTAH 114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Utah: 15.7 vs Dallas: 12.5
Assists (L5) +10.6% more
Utah: 30.8 vs Dallas: 27.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Utah: 80.9% vs Dallas: 74.2%
Blocks (L5) +50.0% more
Dallas: 4.9 vs Utah: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 128.0 120
DAL Score 113.0 138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 31.2 44.0 / 32.0
Assists 27.5 / 30.8 36.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.2 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 49.2 54.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 80.9 61.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 40.6 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.4 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 15.7 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
UTAH
DAL
UTAH
ML
62% 63-39
60% 96-63
54% 44-37
48% 40-43
ATS
67% 68-34
68% 108-51
54% 44-37
48% 40-43
TTL
59% 60-41-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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