NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
12-5 | Road
81
AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-14 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
0%
FALCONS
100%
WOLF PACK
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEV -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
NEV By 1-7 points
0.1%
NEV By 8-14 points
1.1%
AF By 1-7 points
0.0%
AF By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
95
NEVADA
Air Force
58
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
Nevada
60
NEVADA
Air Force
77
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolf Pack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wolf Pack (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
AF @ NEV
45 - 80
Mar 7, 2026
AF @ NEV
59 - 74
Jan 17, 2026
NEV @ AF
81 - 66
Feb 4, 2025
NEV @ AF
74 - 60
Jan 14, 2025
AF @ NEV
62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.6% more
Nevada: 3.6
vs
Air Force: 2.1
Assists (L5)
+31.4% more
Nevada: 14.4
vs
Air Force: 9.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+17.8%
Nevada: 43.8%
vs
Air Force: 26.0%
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
Nevada: 33.1
vs
Air Force: 28.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
95.0
81
AF Score
58.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.0 / 43.8
44.0 / 53.0
Assists
9.9 / 14.4
17.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.1 / 3.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 43.6
41.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
65.0 / 78.7
100.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
28.1 / 33.1
21.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.7 / 6.4
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 10.3
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
NEV
AF
NEV
ML
81%
26-6
62%
23-14
62%
20-12
73%
27-10
ATS
69%
22-10
73%
27-10
62%
20-12
73%
27-10
TTL
69%
22-10
49%
18-19
100%
32-0
100%
37-0
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