FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
11-7 | Road
67
MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
11-5 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
RED FOXES
100%
STAGS
--
RED FOXES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRST +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
FAIR By 1-7 points
26.2%
FAIR By 8-14 points
25.3%
MRST By 1-7 points
15.3%
MRST By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairfield
68
FAIRFIELD
Marist
61
MARIST
Simulated Score
Fairfield
68
FAIRFIELD
Marist
70
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Foxes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Red Foxes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
MRST @ FAIR
60 - 63
Jan 17, 2026
FAIR @ MRST
67 - 82
Feb 6, 2025
MRST @ FAIR
56 - 59
Jan 12, 2025
FAIR @ MRST
51 - 61
Mar 15, 2024
MRST @ FAIR
61 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+74.4% more
Fairfield: 5.4
vs
Marist: 1.4
Rebounding (L5)
+9.1% more
Fairfield: 40.6
vs
Marist: 36.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Fairfield: 39.8%
vs
Marist: 31.5%
Steals (L5)
+70.2% more
Marist: 8.0
vs
Fairfield: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score
68.0
67
MRST Score
61.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 39.8
50.0 / 20.0
Assists
16.1 / 14.7
16.0 / 7.0
Blocks
1.4 / 5.4
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 47.2
53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
79.8 / 72.2
81.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 40.6
37.0 / 30.0
Steals
8.0 / 4.7
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 8.1
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
MRST
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
MRST
Advantage
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
FAIR
MRST
FAIR
ML
55%
17-14
55%
18-15
61%
19-12
61%
20-13
ATS
74%
23-8
48%
16-17
61%
19-12
61%
20-13
TTL
52%
16-15
48%
16-17
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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