Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Monarchs @ Mountaineers ODU @ APP

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

5-14  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Holmes Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

11-8  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MONARCHS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
MONARCHS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (App State)
MonarchsODU (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Monarchs Cover

18.4%

Mountaineers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APP -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

ODU By 1-7 points

12.2%

ODU By 8-14 points

4.0%

APP By 1-7 points

24.3%

APP By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
70
OLD DOMINION
79
APP STATE
Simulated Score
71
OLD DOMINION
78
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 ODU @ APP 75 - 73
Dec 31, 2025 APP @ ODU 81 - 73
Mar 7, 2025 ODU @ APP 61 - 56
Jan 29, 2025 ODU @ APP 78 - 77
Jan 16, 2025 APP @ ODU 62 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.1% more
App State: 4.3 vs Old Dominion: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +9.1% more
App State: 39.0 vs Old Dominion: 35.7
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
App State: 44.6% vs Old Dominion: 42.9%
Steals (L5) +65.4% more
Old Dominion: 7.6 vs App State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 70.0 75
APP Score 79.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 37.8 27.0 / 48.0
Assists 11.3 / 12.2 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.6 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 42.9 46.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 64.4 / 65.0 60.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 35.7 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 2.6 / 7.6 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 7.9 / 9.9 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
ODU
APP
ODU
ML
62% 20-12
52% 17-16
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
ATS
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
59% 19-13
67% 22-11
TTL
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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