CHATTANOOGA
MOCSUTC
8-10 | Road
90
WESTERN CAROLINA
CATAMOUNTSWCU
6-10 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
MOCS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
MOCS
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Western Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WCU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)
UTC By 1-7 points
1.1%
UTC By 8-14 points
0.1%
WCU By 1-7 points
5.8%
WCU By 8-14 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chattanooga
69
CHATTANOOGA
Western Carolina
91
WESTERN CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Chattanooga
72
CHATTANOOGA
Western Carolina
75
WESTERN CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
WCU @ UTC
81 - 76
Jan 17, 2026
UTC @ WCU
90 - 82
Feb 19, 2025
WCU @ UTC
86 - 91
Jan 29, 2025
UTC @ WCU
84 - 60
Mar 2, 2024
WCU @ UTC
82 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.4% more
Western Carolina: 11.8
vs
Chattanooga: 8.6
Rebounding (L5)
+18.3% more
Western Carolina: 39.0
vs
Chattanooga: 32.9
Blocks (L5)
+19.4% more
Chattanooga: 3.1
vs
Western Carolina: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Chattanooga: 78.0%
vs
Western Carolina: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTC Score
69.0
90
WCU Score
91.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 38.7
36.0 / 52.0
Assists
14.0 / 13.5
13.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.1
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 45.6
45.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 78.0
62.0 / 95.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 32.9
35.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.2 / 4.8
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 8.6
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
WCU
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.4
ATS +/-: -3.7
WCU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.8
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WCU
UTC
WCU
UTC
ML
63%
19-11
48%
15-16
76%
22-7
53%
16-14
ATS
73%
22-8
52%
16-15
77%
23-7
55%
17-14
TTL
67%
20-10
77%
24-7
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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