Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Hornets UNCO @ SAC

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

11-7  |  Road

89
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

5-11  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
BEARS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Northern Colorado)
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 HornetsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

97.1%

Hornets Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNCO -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCO)

UNCO By 1-7 points

9.3%

UNCO By 8-14 points

20.1%

SAC By 1-7 points

2.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
81
NORTHERN COLORADO
62
SACRAMENTO STATE
Simulated Score
68
NORTHERN COLORADO
75
SACRAMENTO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Hornets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 SAC @ UNCO 79 - 95
Jan 17, 2026 UNCO @ SAC 89 - 93
Feb 13, 2025 UNCO @ SAC 77 - 61
Jan 18, 2025 SAC @ UNCO 64 - 68
Feb 17, 2024 UNCO @ SAC 80 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +26.5% more
Northern Colorado: 16.2 vs Sacramento State: 11.9
Turnovers (L5) +23.2% more
Northern Colorado: 11.6 vs Sacramento State: 8.9
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Northern Colorado: 46.2% vs Sacramento State: 41.4%
Blocks (L5) +156.6% more
Sacramento State: 3.7 vs Northern Colorado: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 81.0 89
SAC Score 62.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 32.1 31.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.9 / 16.2 17.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.7 / 1.4 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 46.2 42.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 73.2 74.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 31.4 39.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.4 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 11.6 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
UNCO
SAC
UNCO
ML
57% 17-13
50% 16-16
87% 26-4
66% 21-11
ATS
73% 22-8
53% 17-15
87% 27-4
66% 21-11
TTL
60% 18-12
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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