Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Bulldogs MISS @ MSST

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

10-7  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 8:30 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

10-7  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
REBELS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Mississippi State)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

0.2%

Bulldogs Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MISS By 1-7 points

0.1%

MISS By 8-14 points

0.0%

MSST By 1-7 points

1.4%

MSST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
48
OLE MISS
77
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
68
OLE MISS
72
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 MSST @ MISS 90 - 78
Jan 17, 2026 MISS @ MSST 68 - 67
Feb 15, 2025 MSST @ MISS 81 - 71
Jan 18, 2025 MISS @ MSST 81 - 84
Feb 21, 2024 MISS @ MSST 71 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +15.5% more
Mississippi State: 40.2 vs Ole Miss: 34.8
Assists (L5) +21.6% more
Ole Miss: 14.9 vs Mississippi State: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.1%
Ole Miss: 39.1% vs Mississippi State: 25.9%
Steals (L5) +11.2% more
Ole Miss: 6.9 vs Mississippi State: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 48.0 68
MSST Score 77.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.9 / 39.1 19.0 / 10.0
Assists 11.7 / 14.9 12.0 / 6.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 46.8 37.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 76.1 61.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 40.2 / 34.8 46.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.1 / 6.9 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 9.2 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
MSST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
MISS
MSST
MISS
ML
66% 21-11
48% 16-17
55% 17-14
52% 17-16
ATS
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
55% 17-14
52% 17-16
TTL
59% 19-13
64% 21-12
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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