TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
11-6 | Road
79
UTAH
UTESUTAH
8-9 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
100%
UTES
0%
HORNED FROGS
--
UTES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
TCU By 1-7 points
0.0%
TCU By 8-14 points
0.0%
UTAH By 1-7 points
0.3%
UTAH By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
TCU
61
TCU
Utah
96
UTAH
Simulated Score
TCU
68
TCU
Utah
72
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Utes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Utes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Utes (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Utes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
TCU @ UTAH
79 - 82
Jan 15, 2025
UTAH @ TCU
73 - 65
Dec 21, 2022
TCU @ UTAH
75 - 71
Dec 8, 2021
UTAH @ TCU
62 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.9% more
Utah: 6.5
vs
TCU: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Utah: 75.7%
vs
TCU: 70.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Utah: 36.2%
vs
TCU: 33.9%
Blocks (L5)
+67.8% more
TCU: 5.8
vs
Utah: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TCU Score
61.0
79
UTAH Score
96.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 33.9
38.0 / 27.0
Assists
12.1 / 16.8
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
1.9 / 5.8
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 43.9
51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 70.2
59.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 37.1
40.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.5 / 5.4
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 11.0
13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
UTAH
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
UTAH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -4.8
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
TCU
UTAH
TCU
ML
56%
18-14
74%
26-9
67%
20-10
63%
19-11
ATS
56%
18-14
74%
26-9
67%
20-10
63%
19-11
TTL
41%
13-19
66%
23-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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