TARLETON STATE
TEXANSTAR
11-7 | Road
71
UTAH TECH
TRAILBLAZERSUTU
9-10 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
TRAILBLAZERS
0%
TEXANS
--
TRAILBLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UTAH TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Utah Tech)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTU)
TAR By 1-7 points
5.8%
TAR By 8-14 points
1.4%
UTU By 1-7 points
16.9%
UTU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tarleton State
78
TARLETON STATE
Utah Tech
92
UTAH TECH
Simulated Score
Tarleton State
77
TARLETON STATE
Utah Tech
68
UTAH TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trailblazers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Texans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trailblazers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Texans (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UTU @ TAR
80 - 72
Jan 31, 2026
UTU @ TAR
65 - 59
Jan 17, 2026
TAR @ UTU
71 - 75
Jan 30, 2025
UTU @ TAR
54 - 61
Jan 11, 2025
TAR @ UTU
54 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+143.0% more
Utah Tech: 4.4
vs
Tarleton State: 1.8
Assists (L5)
+33.6% more
Utah Tech: 14.5
vs
Tarleton State: 10.8
Steals (L5)
+19.0% more
Tarleton State: 12.3
vs
Utah Tech: 10.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.7%
Tarleton State: 38.9%
vs
Utah Tech: 26.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TAR Score
78.0
71
UTU Score
92.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.2 / 38.9
35.0 / 11.0
Assists
14.5 / 10.8
19.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.4 / 1.8
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 47.9
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 78.1
74.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 31.8
34.0 / 38.0
Steals
10.0 / 12.3
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 14.1
16.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
UTU
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
UTU
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
UTU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTU
TAR
UTU
TAR
ML
68%
23-11
59%
19-13
62%
21-13
66%
21-11
ATS
65%
22-12
69%
22-10
62%
21-13
66%
21-11
TTL
65%
22-12
50%
16-16
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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