NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
6-12 | Road
52
PORTLAND STATE
VIKINGSPRST
10-5 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
VIKINGS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
--
VIKINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
PORTLAND STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PRST +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRST)
NAU By 1-7 points
27.2%
NAU By 8-14 points
20.1%
PRST By 1-7 points
21.6%
PRST By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Arizona
55
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Portland State
52
PORTLAND STATE
Simulated Score
Northern Arizona
72
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Portland State
75
PORTLAND STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lumberjacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Vikings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Vikings (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Vikings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
PRST @ NAU
77 - 68
Jan 17, 2026
NAU @ PRST
52 - 63
Feb 13, 2025
NAU @ PRST
46 - 58
Jan 18, 2025
PRST @ NAU
80 - 69
Feb 17, 2024
NAU @ PRST
68 - 83
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Northern Arizona: 34.7%
vs
Portland State: 32.2%
Blocks (L5)
+70.6% more
Portland State: 4.9
vs
Northern Arizona: 2.9
Rebounding (L5)
+26.9% more
Portland State: 39.4
vs
Northern Arizona: 31.1
Steals (L5)
+25.8% more
Portland State: 6.8
vs
Northern Arizona: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAU Score
55.0
52
PRST Score
52.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 34.7
30.0 / 38.0
Assists
16.6 / 14.5
17.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.9 / 2.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 47.2
41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 72.3
63.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 31.1
39.0 / 28.0
Steals
6.8 / 5.4
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 11.4
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
PRST
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
PRST
Advantage
18-9-1
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
PRST
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PRST
NAU
PRST
NAU
ML
65%
20-11
62%
20-12
71%
22-9
81%
26-6
ATS
71%
22-9
62%
20-12
71%
22-9
81%
26-6
TTL
47%
14-16-1
66%
21-11
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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