Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Thunderbirds ACU @ SUU

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

10-8  |  Road

52
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 8:30 PM ET
America First Events Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN UTAH

THUNDERBIRDSSUU

5-13  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
THUNDERBIRDS
100%
WILDCATS --
THUNDERBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
102.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Abilene Christian)
WildcatsACU (-3.5) 0 ThunderbirdsSUU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

72.6%

Thunderbirds Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ACU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

ACU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ACU By 8-14 points

24.3%

SUU By 1-7 points

16.9%

SUU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
54
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
48
SOUTHERN UTAH
Simulated Score
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
78
SOUTHERN UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunderbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Thunderbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 102.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 SUU @ ACU 83 - 87
Jan 31, 2026 SUU @ ACU 79 - 76
Jan 17, 2026 ACU @ SUU 52 - 74
Feb 20, 2025 SUU @ ACU 59 - 75
Feb 8, 2025 ACU @ SUU 84 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Abilene Christian: 7.5 vs Southern Utah: 6.6
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Abilene Christian: 46.3% vs Southern Utah: 43.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Abilene Christian: 72.0% vs Southern Utah: 70.2%
Blocks (L5) +55.2% more
Southern Utah: 3.9 vs Abilene Christian: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 54.0 52
SUU Score 48.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 34.6 36.0 / 17.0
Assists 14.3 / 12.9 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.5 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 46.3 48.0 / 24.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 72.0 71.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 26.4 44.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.5 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 12.2 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
SUU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
SUU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
SUU
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SUU
ACU
SUU
ACU
ML
61% 19-12
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
ATS
71% 22-9
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
TTL
52% 16-15
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 9 hours, 4 minutes ago
Aiden Tobiason Brings Sharpshooting and Playmaking to Syracuse B…
si 9 hours, 14 minutes ago
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 22 hours, 13 minutes ago
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day, 3 hours ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 8 hours ago