Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Panthers LOU @ PITT

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

12-5  |  Road

100
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Petersen Events Center
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

8-9  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
CARDINALS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Pittsburgh)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 PanthersPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

24.2%

Panthers Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PITT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

LOU By 1-7 points

15.3%

LOU By 8-14 points

5.8%

PITT By 1-7 points

26.2%

PITT By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
55
LOUISVILLE
62
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
71
LOUISVILLE
78
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 LOU @ PITT 100 - 59
Mar 1, 2025 PITT @ LOU 68 - 79
Jan 11, 2025 LOU @ PITT 82 - 78
Feb 17, 2024 LOU @ PITT 59 - 86
Jan 6, 2024 PITT @ LOU 83 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.3% more
Pittsburgh: 9.1 vs Louisville: 6.1
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Pittsburgh: 48.3% vs Louisville: 42.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Pittsburgh: 34.4% vs Louisville: 29.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.4%
Pittsburgh: 78.7% vs Louisville: 74.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 55.0 100
PITT Score 62.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 29.1 29.0 / 52.0
Assists 14.8 / 13.9 13.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 42.4 38.0 / 63.0
Free Throw % 78.7 / 74.3 63.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 39.2 24.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.1 / 6.1 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.2 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
LOU
PITT
LOU
ML
58% 19-14
63% 22-13
45% 15-18
71% 24-10
ATS
64% 21-12
71% 25-10
45% 15-18
71% 24-10
TTL
61% 20-13
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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